Frances Tiafoe defeated Cameron Norrie during their BNP Paribas Open quarterfinal match in Indian Wells, Calif., on Wednesday, March 15, 2023.
Bnp Paribas Open 2023 Tiafoe Vs Norrie5562
- Daniil Medvedev and Frances Tiafoe meet for the fifth time, in the Indian Wells semifinals Saturday
- The Russian has won all four previous matches, and is a strong favorite to get to the final in the Indian Wells odds
- Scroll down as we break down the odds and make our Medvedev vs Tiafoe prediction
Frances Tiafoe has never beaten Daniil Medvedev at the ATP level, and you wouldn’t expect much different in their Indian Wells semifinal Saturday and our Medvedev vs Tiafoe prediction.
Medvedev vs Tiafoe Odds
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-4.5 (+102)||-430||O 21.5 (-118)|
| Frances Tiafoe (USA)||+4.5 (-138)||+310||U 21.5 (-112)|
Medvedev vs Tiafoe has the favored Russian at -430 odds to win it, awhile the American Tiafoe is a +310 underdog. Medvedev vs Tiafoe odds as of March 17 at FanDuel.
Medvedev Moves on to Indian Wells Semifinals
It’s been a noisy but successful road to the semifinals for Medvedev, who has had issues with the slowness of the courts all week and even messed up a fingernail slipping on it.
He also avoided what potentially could have been a nasty situation when he turned an ankle during his match against Alexander Zverev. In the end, the player who said he almost never gets taped up at all had the ankle taped up heavily. And it turned out to be more of a fright on the spot than anything as he defeated Zverev in three hours and 17 minutes.
Daniil Medvedev: “I’m happy the ankle didn’t hurt much, because when I was warming up it was hurting pretty bad. I knew I’m gonna play, but I couldn’t move well on the warmup, tried to warm it up as long as I can, took 1 painkiller. Felt better and better during the match.” pic.twitter.com/BD5HmXv62j
— kr9pton (@kr9ptonlul) March 16, 2023
Medvedev was hopeful he’d be able to play his next match, a quarterfinal against No. 23 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Wednesday. And he defeated him in two close sets even if it was a little iffy at the beginning.
His movement has generally looked fine; his disdain for the courts is chronic.
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Tiafoe the Last American Standing
If you were going to bet on who the last American player left alive in the Indian Wells men’s singles would be, you’d probably have picked defending champion Taylor Fritz.
But Fritz went out to a resurgent Jannik Sinner. And Tiafoe, who had a sweet draw in beating Marcos Giron, Jason Kubler and qualifier Alejandro Tabilo, came up with a gem in the quarterfinals against another former champion, 2020 winner Cameron Norrie.
The keys were a good success rate on his own second serve (56%) and good success on Norrie’s second serve (59%).
As well, Tiafoe’s effectiveness at the net paid off: he went 12-for-15.
Medvedev vs Tiafoe Head-to-Head
|27 (Feb. 11, 1996)||Age||25 (Jan. 20, 1998)|
|Moscow, Russia||Birthplace||Hyattsville, MD|
|17||Career ATP Singles Titles||1|
|No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 14 (Feb. 6, 2023)|
|No. 6||Current Ranking||No. 16|
|$27,415,119||Career Prize Money||$8,013,732|
|23-2||2022 Won/Loss Record||14-3|
|4||ATP Head-to-Head Wins||0|
But for Tiafoe, Medvedev is at a different level than anyone else he’s played so far at Indian Wells, or all season, really. The only top-15 player he’s faced so far in 2023 was Fritz in Acapulco a few weeks ago. And he lost in straight sets.
Medvedev Back in the Top 5
The Russian is already back into the top five in the rankings with his efforts so far in Indian Wells. And he can’t do any better even if he wins the tournament.
But considering how many issues he’s having with it all, it might be the most satisfying win of his career so far. (Okay, besides winning the US Open).
Medvedev vs Tiafoe Match History
|2021||Miami Masters (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-4, 6-3||Medvedev|
|2020||US Open (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-4, 6-1, 6-0||Medvedev|
|2020||Australian Open (R128)||Outdoor Hard||6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2||Medvedev|
|2019||Washington (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-2, 7-5||Medvedev|
|2015||Nice Challenger (Q2)||Outdoor Clay||6-3, 6-2||Tiafoe|
Tiafoe has one win over Medvedev in his career. And it came eons ago – eight years ago, in the second round of qualifying at a clay-court challenger in France.
Medvedev was 19 and ranked No. 468 (as hard as that is to believe now). Tiafoe was 17 and ranked No. 291.
Medvedev vs Rublev Prediction
Since that first meeting, it has gone all Medvedev’s way. He has only lost one of the 11 sets they have played. And all of their meetings have come on outdoor hard courts.
But the last one was nearly two years ago. Since then, both have gone on to career highs. But the matchup still favors Medvedev to a major extent.
Medvedev vs Rublev Picks: Medvedev, under 19.5 Games (+156)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.